Tuesday, December 4, 2018 / by Geoffrey Zahler
Greetings and Happy December,
We had an interesting month. The Median Sales Price actually dropped from October, but is still about 12% higher than it was this time last year. This is showing that the growth has started to decelerate a bit. We are still anticipating a positive 2019, but signs are indicating it will be a less aggressive positive push forward. Below are some of the stats with our commentary!
Reminder: This is Single Family Residences ONLY as reported through our MLS System, which does include some new home construction (but not all).
Median Sales $295,000 - +11.7% YOY (Down from last month)
Average $341,600 - +9.1% YOY (Down from last month)
Our Median Sales as I mentioned are up over Double Digits, and strong. The average, which tends to fluctuate more than Median, is also up close to 10% Year over year, but for the first time in a while, both were DOWN from the previous month. We tend to focus more on trends, but it is interesting to note we did have a dip from month to month for the sales numbers.
New Listings: 3236 +21.7% YOY - But down big from October
This is one of the single biggest reasons we're seeing the slower acceleration of sales prices. The last few years were at multi year LOWS for inventory. Inventory has started to pick up, and is being sold at a slightly slower pace, increasing overall inventory. There were 3236 NEW listings in November, an increase of over 20% (or about 500 homes) compared to 2017 during November. That's a considerable spike!
Homes for Sale - 7570 +17% YOY Down slightly from October
This is also an indicator on why pricing is slowing. The number of homes we have for sale as of Nov 30 was 7570. That's an increase of 17% from the same time last year. That's a lot of extra houses! Homes are still getting absorbed (sold), but at a slower rate, due in part to the more rapid INCREASE of supply.
Closed Sales - 2140 -16.1% YOY and down 500 homes from October
Simple Math - We sold 2140 homes in November, but added 3236 new ones. There were more added than sold, and that's why we're seeing the number of homes for sale at month end creep higher than it has in several years!
Median DOM: 22 - +29.4% YOY
Avg DOM: 36 - Flat from last year
I like these two numbers, because they show if homes are priced well, they are moving! The median days on market is 22 days. Half the homes on the market are sold faster than 3 weeks, and half are slower. If you take the ENTIRE inventory of homes, the average is 36 days; or just over a month. While the Median has increased by about 5 days or so, the average is flat from last year. Moral of the story; if the home is priced well, you're going to sell it sooner than later!
Months Supply - 2.8 Months - +21.7% YOY
I speak about Months Supply all the time. This means if we don't have any new homes put on the market, how long will it take to sell the rest of the inventory. It's a sign of how "hot" our market is, and whether we are in a "Buyer's" or "Seller's" market. We've been strongly in a seller's market for the last few years, but that is starting to shift. In January, we only had 1.9 Months of Inventory, and we are now up to 2.8 Months. That doesn't seem like a big difference, but it certainly is. While we are still closer to a Seller's Market than a Buyer's Market, we are certainly shifting to a more favorable market for our Buyer clients. Historically, 6 months is considered a neutral market, however, with some changes, I would say 3.5 Months is probably a "Neutral" market these days.
Dollar Volume: 730.7MM - -8.5% YOY
Total Dollar Volume for 11 months - 10,108mm - we may have less overall in 2018 than in 2017!
This may be the first time in about 2-3 years that we have LESS volume in the MLS than we did the year before. Why? It could be a lot of factors. Interest Rates have put some people on the sidelines so they are not buying. Home values are increasing (almost 12% as a median), but there are LESS sales to make up the volume. The other reason is the push to new building lately. With such a short supply of inventory on the resale market, buyers have been flocking to the new build markets of late. The Zahler Team has put 15 clients into a New Build Contract this year, so many of these stats aren't making their way into the MLS, driving down the volume. I don't worry too much about this statistic, but it certainly is an interesting one to follow!
That's it for this week, and for stats for this month! As always, if you have any questions, please let us know!
- Geoff Zahler