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Bold Predictions - Looking Back on 2018 and Predicting 2019

Tuesday, January 15, 2019   /   by Geoffrey Zahler

Bold Predictions - Looking Back on 2018 and Predicting 2019

Hi all,

When you make bold predictions, they can be way off because you just say they're bold.  But when you record them, blog about them, and video them, there's no way you can't go back and review your predictions.  Some I was close on, some I was way off, and some were just funny.  

If you want to see the video we did on our 2018 Recap and 2019 Predictions, visit our YouTube video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=peR9_MNd7no

Las Vegas Market Statistics Predictions:

Closed Sales
For 2017, through 11 months, we are already at 41,141
For 2018 - I am predicting 49,000 units sold!
Boy - was I wrong.  We saw a slight uptick over 2017, but this number pretty much has remained consistent for 3 years running.  We ended 2018 with 42,094 units sold.  For 2019, I am predicting 43,000!

Median Days on Market
In 2017, we are sitting currently at 15 Days on Market
I think 2018 will be slightly slower, but still predicting the Median Days on Market to be 18 Days
Wasn't close again!  2018 actually saw a rise up, as I had predicted, but far higher.  We ended the year at 27 Days on Market as Median.  I anticipate the trend to continue into 2019, expecting us to have by the end of the year, 31 Days on Market as a Median.

Dollar Volume
This is for the Total amount of all sales recorded through the MLS
In 2017 we are on pace for just under $12,000,000,000 (That's 12 Billion)
For 2018, I anticipate us hitting a mark of $13,250,000,000! (13.25 Billion Dollars)
I was actually PRETTY close here.  We ended the year at $12,925,00, so about $325,000,000, which is less than 1/2 month of the lowest month we did this year, so give me a break, I was like 2 weeks off.  For 2019, I'm keeping my prediction at the number I predicted in 2018, $13.25 Billion!

Median Sales Price for All Units (including Townhomes, Condos, SFR, etc)
2016 - $220,000
2017 - $246,000
2018 - My prediction is $270,000!
2018 Actual - $274,000 - I'll call that an accurate forecast, what do you think?
2019 - My Prediction is $283,000 - the market continues to climb

Median Sales Price for Single Family Homes Only
2016 - $240,000
2017 - $264,000
2018 - $287,000!  Will we get there?
2018 Actual - $295,500 - we go there, and MORE
2019 - My Prediction is another positive year, albeit a little less aggressive - $306,500


Trends / Non Specific Real Estate Items
Mortgage Rates - Currently are sitting in the 4.25-4.50%.  I predict that we'll hit 5.0% temporarily in 2018, but will finish the year about where we are now.  There will definitely be some slight panic, or at least some indigestion in the industry when we approach the 5.0% rate, but we are still dealing with historically low rates.  
So we actually did hit what I though were were going to, but ended up sitting a bit above 4.25-4.5, but not by much.  2019 has seen rates drop a bit, but I do think by the end of the year, we'll be right in the 5.5% range!


Stock Market
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will hit 28,000 but will not settle that high!  I was close, and then really on the mark.  The DJIA hit 26,800, and settled around 23,000, which is close to what I predicted.  I think we end the year of 2019 at about 24,000

Insider Joke for Real Estate Agents
Zillow WILL NOT Take our Jobs! - Still true

Misty asked if we were in a Bubble, and I emphatically said NO, we are NOT in a Bubble, and at list on a micro level, Las Vegas is still going to be a VERY good place to buy/invest/live in 2018!

2018 - We are NOT in a bubble - we hit double digit gains, and are still one of the strongest markets in the country.  The pace will slow, but 2019 will still be another solid year!!!!!!!


Someone Asked About Bitcoin, and I'm not ready to talk about this... and in 2019, still not!

Sports Related Conversations
I Boldly predicted the Lakers will continue to dissapoint me and that the Dodgers had their best shot last year.  Both really sad.  On a Las Vegas level, I predicted that there will be an issue with the construction of the Raiders Stadium in 2018, and it will push the official arrival of the Raiders past the 2020 expectation!  I also said that the Las Vegas Golden Knights will MAKE THE PLAYOFFS AND WIN THEIR FIRST ROUND PLAYOFF MATCH, which has never happened, but will go on to lose in the 2nd round when they may not have Home Ice Advantage!
Man, regarding my Dodgers, I hate being right.  I said game 7 of the World Series was about as close as we would get.  While we did return to the world series in 2018, we lost in 5, not 7.  Unless we get Bryce Harper in uniform, we're still going to be a threat, but it may not be our year!

The Knights shocked me, and shocked the world, making it all the way to the Stanley Cup Final, bringing the city and fans on a ride we'll never forget.  I'm so glad I was wrong.  I see 2019 being a step back year, but we'll still be a playoff team!  And we'll still win the first round series, but that's it!

So Far so good on the Raiders Stadium, on pace to finish on time... who would've thought a construction project of this magnitude would be able to do so.  If this holds true, Sunday's in Las Vegas will change forever in about 19 moths!


And the last thing that I didn't mention on the air, but want to put in writing, maybe the BIGGEST AND BOLDEST Prediction of 2018...

The Zahler Team will hit 100 Buyer/Seller/Lease Transactions for our clients in 2018!  But we can only do that with your help!  I would SO love to make that BOLD prediction a realty!

We fell short.  We serviced over 70 transactions and completed more than $25,000,000 in sales.  Our smaller team alone handled 55 sales, and did over $20,000,000 in transactions.  My bold prediction this year is to hit the $30,000,000 mark!  

So... you want to buy or sell a house?  Let's go!

- Geoff

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