Wednesday, December 20, 2017 / by Geoffrey Zahler
Las Vegas Market Statistics Predictions:
For 2016, there were a total of 41,107 units (single family, multi-family, townhomes, condos) sold!
For 2017, through 11 months, we are already at 41,141
For 2018 - I am predicting 49,000 units sold!
Median Days on Market
In 2017, we are sitting currently at 15 Days on Market
I think 2018 will be slightly slower, but still predicting the Median Days on Market to be 18 Days
This is for the Total amount of all sales recorded through the MLS
In 2017 we are on pace for just under $12,000,000 (That's 12 Billion)
For 2018, I anticipate us hitting a mark of $13,250,000! (13.25 Billion Dollars)
Median Sales Price for All Units (including Townhomes, Condos, SFR, etc)
2016 - $220,000
2017 - $246,000
2018 - My prediction is $270,000!
Median Sales Price for Single Family Homes Only
2016 - $240,000
2017 - $264,000
2018 - $287,000! Will we get there?
Trends / Non Specific Real Estate Items
Mortgage Rates - Currently are sitting in the 4.25-4.50%. I predict that we'll hit 5.0% temporarily in 2018, but will finish the year about where we are now. There will definitely be some slight panic, or at least some indigestion in the industry when we approach the 5.0% rate, but we are still dealing with historically low rates.
Foreclosures in Nevada
I believe we will see MORE homes go through the foreclosure process in 2018 than in 2017! This is due to the legislation and practicality, and we are already seeing an increase in the number of Notice of Defaults, which is the first step in the foreclosure process!
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will hit 28,000 but will not settle that high!
Insider Joke for Real Estate Agents
Zillow WILL NOT Take our Jobs!
Gaming Revenues and Tourism
This is a statistic that has been monitored, along with tourists (as denoted by hotel counts, airport visitors, etc) for over 40 years. I believe we will be flat, or slightly DOWN in 2018 compared to 2017. The height of gaming revenue was in 2007, which should be of no surprise before the economic recession that started in 2008. I also believe the number of annual tourists will dip BELOW 42,000,000 tourists, which will be the first time since 2014, but not significantly lower. This will be in part due to the perception of safety and concerns over the tragedy of 1 October. Vegas has and will continue to grow and heal from this tragedy, but my prediction is we will see a few less visitors than the last few years.
Questions from Viewers
Chris asked if I feel we will see some loosening of mortgage lending practices and the reinstatement of "Stated Income" Loans. I believe we will NOT see stated income back anytime soon, but did mention we are continuously seeing lending loosen its restrictions, raising lending limits, and even increasing the Debt to Income Ratios that are so important in the underwriting stages of a loan. In 2018, it will be easy to get money, but not the free for all that we had leading up to the Housing Burst in 2007/2008.
Misty asked if we were in a Bubble, and I emphatically said NO, we are NOT in a Bubble, and at list on a micro level, Las Vegas is still going to be a VERY good place to buy/invest/live in 2018!
Ryan asked if Artificial Intelligence will continue to impact our industry, and I said yes, but will not be the disruptor individuals think. Technology, and "AI" will continue to lend a hand to the profession, but nothing will be able to take the "feel" out of walking into a home, seeing the neighborhood (and neighbors) and listening to traffic noise, ambient noise, etc. Technology will always be there, and will continue to help provide an additional level of property searching, but with Residential Real Estate, there will continue to be a very important aspect of emotional feel, which will never be lost to AI.
Someone Asked About Bitcoin, and I'm not ready to talk about this...
Sports Related Conversations
I Boldly predicted the Lakers will continue to dissapoint me and that the Dodgers had their best shot last year. Both really sad. On a Las Vegas level, I predicted that there will be an issue with the construction of the Raiders Stadium in 2018, and it will push the official arrival of the Raiders past the 2020 expectation! I also said that the Las Vegas Golden Knights will MAKE THE PLAYOFFS AND WIN THEIR FIRST ROUND PLAYOFF MATCH, which has never happened, but will go on to lose in the 2nd round when they may not have Home Ice Advantage!
And the last thing that I didn't mention on the air, but want to put in writing, maybe the BIGGEST AND BOLDEST Prediction of 2018...
The Zahler Team will hit 100 Buyer/Seller/Lease Transactions for our clients in 2018! But we can only do that with your help! I would SO love to make that BOLD prediction a realty!
So there they are - Our BOLD Predictions for 2018! Let's see what works, and what doesn't! How badly did we do? We'll find out in 365 days!
See you then, and hopefully, before!